Moderna Faces Challenges, MRNA Stock Continues YTD Decline

By Patricia Miller

Feb 17, 2025

2 min read

Moderna faces challenges with declining sales and pipeline delays, raising concerns for investors as it navigates its 2025 outlook in a shifting market.

Messenger RNA or mRNA strand 3D rendering illustration with copy space. Genetics, science, medical research, genome replication concepts.

#What You Need To Know

Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) has recently reported meeting consensus expectations for its fourth quarter and full-year sales, alongside earnings per share figures. However, the company has provided cautious sales guidance for 2025, projecting a midpoint of $2 billion that contrasts with the more optimistic consensus estimate of $2.4 billion. Concerns over declining sales of COVID-19 vaccines persist, compounded by inadequate progress updates on its pipeline, especially concerning the cytomegalovirus vaccine.

Investors face uncertainties due to potential declines in US vaccine sales, alongside challenges such as high research and development expenses and the possibility of requiring additional capital. The launch of a flu vaccine has been postponed to 2026, and the anticipated growth contributions from FDA priority review vouchers for respiratory syncytial virus and new COVID-19 vaccines are diminishing. Furthermore, ongoing collaborations with Merck will not yield revenue until at least 2027 due to costs associated with extensive trials.

Despite these challenges, Moderna aims for ten approvals by 2028 and targets $6 billion in annual sales, focusing on returning to profitability while managing research expenditures cautiously. Key pipeline candidates, including a COVID-flu combination vaccine and next-generation vaccines, remain uncertain due to delayed timelines and unclear market demands.

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#Why This Is Important for Retail Investors

  1. Understanding Moderna's sales trends helps investors assess the company's financial health and future performance potential.

  2. Awareness of pipeline delays and uncertainties can influence investment decisions and risk assessments.

  3. Evaluating guidance forecasts equips investors with insights on potential returns and market trends.

  4. Knowledge of market pressures allows retail investors to make informed choices about their biotechnology sector investments.

  5. Recognizing partnerships and R&D strategies aids in understanding broader industry dynamics that may affect stock prices.

#Relevant ETFs

Some investors prefer to invest in stocks via an exchange-traded fund for ease and reduced risk. Some relevant ETFs include the following:

  • iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF

  • SPDR S&P Biotech ETF

  • Invesco Dynamic Biotech & Genome ETF

  • ARK Genomic Revolution ETF

  • VanEck Biotechnology ETF

  • Biotechnology ETF

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Important Notice And Disclaimer

This article does not provide any financial advice and is not a recommendation to deal in any securities or product. Investments may fall in value and an investor may lose some or all of their investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Patricia Miller does not hold any position in the stock(s) and/or financial instrument(s) mentioned in the above article.

Patricia Miller has not been paid to produce this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.

Digitonic Ltd, the owner of ValueTheMarkets.com, does not hold a position or positions in the stock(s) and/or financial instrument(s) mentioned in the above article.

Digitonic Ltd, the owner of ValueTheMarkets.com, has not been paid for the production of this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.